1/4cuplow sodium beef brothchicken broth, or water
1(8-ounce) can no salt added tomato sauce
7ounces2% plain Greek yogurtabout 3/4 cup
1 1/2cupsgrated sharp cheddar cheesedivided
1/4cuppanko breadcrumbsuse whole wheat if you can find them
2chopped green onionsabout 1/3 cup, divided
Place a rack in the center of your oven and preheat to 350°F. Lightly coat a 2 ½- to 3-quart casserole dish (such as a 12-inch oval dish, 8x10 casserole dish, deep 9x9-inch casserole dish, or similar), with non-stick spray.
Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil. Add the pasta and cook until very al dente (it shouldn’t be completely crunchy, but it should still be a tiny bit too firm to eat). Drain and transfer to a colander, shaking out as much excess water as possible. Drizzle with 1/2 tablespoon oil and with a large spoon, stir gently to coat. Set aside.
While the pasta cooks, heat the remaining 2 tablespoons oil in a Dutch oven or large, deep skillet. Once hot, add the carrots, onion, bell pepper, salt, and black pepper. Let cook until the onion turns brown and soft, about 10 minutes (don't shortcut this step; it builds a lot of flavor).
Add the garlic, hot sauce, smoked paprika, and cumin. Cook, stirring constantly, until very fragrant, about 30 seconds.
Increase the heat to medium high and add the beef. Use a sturdy spoon or spatula to break up the meat, browning it on all sides. Continue to cook and break apart the beef, until it is fully cooked through, about 6 minutes. If your meat is very oily, drain away the excess fat, leaving a moderate amount to keep it moist (I used 93% lean and did not need to drain).
Pour in the broth, stirring to scrape up the bottom of the pan.
Stir in the tomato sauce and bring to a simmer. Let simmer for 3 minutes. Remove the pan from the heat.
Stir in the drained pasta, Greek yogurt, and 3/4 cup of the cheese.
Transfer the mixture to the prepared baking dish. Sprinkle with the remaining 3/4 cup cheese, panko, and half of the green onions. Bake for 15 minutes, until hot and the cheese is melted.
Switch the oven to broil. Broil the casserole for 2 to 3 minutes, until the breadcrumbs are browned. Don’t walk away!
Let rest for 5 minutes, then sprinkle the remaining green onions over the top. Serve hot.